Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 40.275864 43.963333 48.026639 52.873185 58.546253 65.039898 73.129095
2025-02-16 34.445286 39.246277 44.927639 52.278149 61.743253 73.836278 91.026427
2025-02-23 30.884397 36.146239 42.664024 51.570591 63.844234 80.891864 107.919183
2025-03-02 28.200792 33.645355 40.617269 50.544308 64.970704 86.437800 123.922795
2025-03-09 26.268676 31.838292 39.170085 49.982573 66.450463 92.564387 142.713428
2025-03-16 24.301821 29.781447 37.137076 48.263284 65.809350 95.030084 155.676508
2025-03-23 23.721978 29.518418 37.514658 50.055625 70.870212 108.231894 196.288933
2025-03-30 22.621077 28.436737 36.608321 49.747215 72.357674 115.252931 227.134897
2025-04-06 21.548802 27.314548 35.539119 49.040344 73.001767 120.733442 257.686778
2025-04-13 20.335508 25.915583 33.953883 47.330932 71.567644 121.497568 275.045202
2025-04-20 20.037422 25.815328 34.307001 48.843685 76.356286 137.356477 358.321327
2025-04-27 19.723945 25.666209 34.562505 50.202381 81.079909 154.845107 476.901750
2025-05-04 19.136018 25.098416 34.157421 50.430164 83.704246 168.521485 613.404437
2025-05-11 18.448687 24.346841 33.412859 49.980493 84.839493 178.713664 765.267668
2025-05-18 17.779323 23.587100 32.603222 49.326195 85.407362 187.552012 950.961390
2025-05-25 17.105630 22.788128 31.679754 48.369817 85.125600 193.643207 1153.975683
2025-06-01 16.561862 22.166386 31.013818 47.845901 85.793598 203.513583 1510.661170
2025-06-08 15.861125 21.270188 29.841075 46.240850 83.589351 202.007505 1672.866245
2025-06-15 15.778198 21.343419 30.309699 47.914050 89.903035 237.634481 3896.437520
2025-06-22 15.371069 20.880635 29.829776 47.626314 91.080041 252.699201 7221.834914
2025-06-29 14.929086 20.344580 29.194988 46.966557 91.148301 262.890596 14391.749049
2025-07-06 14.363504 19.590161 28.145768 45.369502 88.395547 257.662678 17837.754930
2025-07-13 14.294908 19.639030 28.511619 46.782938 94.437340 304.133781 NaN